Excellent thank you. Looking forward to part 4. That is my only real critique: the 1929 crash was a hard money cleansing, a world that no longer exists. And perhaps there are rents to be found drawn from fiat debasement that provide income
Just read through the entire series so far in one sitting. Excellent work and elucidating. I believe your predictions will prove prescient. I also believe there is time to profit from the emergence of BTCTCs before it all blows up. Most aren't even levered up yet.
The Jan 26 $80 put is going for $5.00, implied vol about 44
The Jan 26 $100 call is going for $8.60, IV about 47
Therefore I think Mr Market still thinks the long GBTC trade has legs. I would watch the 6 month option space for a turning point. If puts come into favor, it's time to start packing.
I have hated treasure companies since they started. mNAV and the purchase of the underlying asset at an inflated price just never sounded safe. If you can’t explain how your business makes money in a single slide it is normally a scam.
So the million dollar question is are we in 1924 or 1929 this cycle.
You and your reads should pick up the new edition of R. Christopher Whalen’s book titled Inflated. It also goes into details of investment trusts amongst other get rich quick schemes from 1840 to the present.
As I recall, Lyn Alden was recommending $MSTR as a Bitcoin Proxy. Has she changed her mind since they started issuing equity and debt?
I don’t really hear her name as much. She was on a Podcast I usually listen to, but I took a pass.
Thank you. Looks like I have a lot to read here. 😀 I appreciate the recommendation and will look forward to reading her book.
I have frequently have listened or seen her or Podcasts in the past and will add this one.
I do recall at one point she was recommending $MSTR as a BTC proxy, but I believe that was before Saylor went off the ranch and began issuing all sorts of debt and preffered’s. Has she changed her stance?
I could never wrap my head around $MSTR, especially given it’s shady past
Great article bruv! I wonder how this will end 🤭
Is a distinguishing factor that we are in fiscal dominance now ?
Truly an excellent read, and a wonderful analogy.
The treasury strategy still feels in its 3rd innings here though. If so, then this has legs.
Perhaps the burst comes when the Michael Howell liquidity drops off into 2026. In the meantime, this thing has the potential to be much much bigger.
So the question is, knowing this, do you want to dance, and if you do dance do you know when to stop?
Excellent thank you. Looking forward to part 4. That is my only real critique: the 1929 crash was a hard money cleansing, a world that no longer exists. And perhaps there are rents to be found drawn from fiat debasement that provide income
Your headed in the right direction...
A great piece of historical analysis 🙏🏼
Just read through the entire series so far in one sitting. Excellent work and elucidating. I believe your predictions will prove prescient. I also believe there is time to profit from the emergence of BTCTCs before it all blows up. Most aren't even levered up yet.
Man, this is great (I mean scary, but great writing); you should write a book on that.
Amazing and original content, read and re-read.
What could a conservative investor do to mitigate a possible 1929 scenario?
Looking at GBTC options for a signal...
GBTC closed Aug 7 at 91.71.
The Jan 26 $80 put is going for $5.00, implied vol about 44
The Jan 26 $100 call is going for $8.60, IV about 47
Therefore I think Mr Market still thinks the long GBTC trade has legs. I would watch the 6 month option space for a turning point. If puts come into favor, it's time to start packing.
Buy gold and bitcoin short the S&P 500
https://substack.com/@clarityandcapital/note/p-167157999?r=tlu7t&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
I have hated treasure companies since they started. mNAV and the purchase of the underlying asset at an inflated price just never sounded safe. If you can’t explain how your business makes money in a single slide it is normally a scam.
So the million dollar question is are we in 1924 or 1929 this cycle.
Terrific article.
You and your reads should pick up the new edition of R. Christopher Whalen’s book titled Inflated. It also goes into details of investment trusts amongst other get rich quick schemes from 1840 to the present.
As I recall, Lyn Alden was recommending $MSTR as a Bitcoin Proxy. Has she changed her mind since they started issuing equity and debt?
I don’t really hear her name as much. She was on a Podcast I usually listen to, but I took a pass.
Whalen book is great! Lyn just did a podcast on twitter I think.
You may also enjoy https://bewaterltd.com/p/broken-money
Thank you. Looks like I have a lot to read here. 😀 I appreciate the recommendation and will look forward to reading her book.
I have frequently have listened or seen her or Podcasts in the past and will add this one.
I do recall at one point she was recommending $MSTR as a BTC proxy, but I believe that was before Saylor went off the ranch and began issuing all sorts of debt and preffered’s. Has she changed her stance?
I could never wrap my head around $MSTR, especially given it’s shady past
https://x.com/LynAldenContact/status/1954920639183081614
Be Water, have you read Whalen's book fully ?
9 more years?
nice work!
Fantastic piece! Looking forward to part IV!
Superb writing and research, thanks.
Very good article that I read after Le Shrub re-stacked it. Tick tock. 😳
All Crypto currency is wasted blocks of electricity.